I dolori di una non giovane Worldspace

Money makes the World go 'round. But what about Worldspace and satellite pay radio in general? La radio satellitare digitale continua, nonostante il buon successo di pubblico negli Stati Uniti, a suscitare le perplessità della comunità finanziaria. Mettere un satellite in orbita è un affare estremamente costoso. Rientrare di questi costi, come insegnano Sirius Satellite e Xm Radio (o, in un passato non radiofonico ma telefonico, imprese come quella di Iridium), può essere una missione impossibile. Pochi giorni fa Worldspace ha comunicato i risultati della sua trimestrale chiusa il 30 settembre. Com'era prevedibile - considerando che in Europa, Worldspace ha smesso di raccogliere abbonamenti per preparare il lancio della sua nuova offerta 2008, che dovrebbe partire proprio da Worldspace Italia - il numero di abbonamenti ha subito una leggera contrazione. Ma è soprattutto l'EBITDA - un parametro contabile (l'utile prima di interessi, tasse, deprezzamenti e ammortizzamenti) non legalmente accettato ma considerato da tutti come una metrica attendibile della profittabilità di una impresa - a restare negativo, anche se in misura tendenzialmente inferiore allo stesso periodo del 2006 (circa 20 milioni di dollari contro 27). La perdita netta nel terzo quarto è stata superiore ai 36 milioni, nei primi nove mesi dell'anno è di 123,5 milioni. Miglioramenti ce ne sono stati, per esempio un visto calo dei cosiddetti "costi per singolo abbonato" (nel 2006 in India erano stati di 40 dollari, quest'anno scesi a 24) ma la realtà è che al momento Worldaspace, fondata nel 1990, non è una azienda da urlo. L'India è l'unico mercato significativo e l'Arpu medio mensile da quelle parti è di soli 3 dollari per abbonato. E per quanto interessante sia il posizionamento di Worldspace alla luce della futura offerta europea, c'è da chiedersi se gli anni delle vacche grasse non rischiano di arrivare troppo tardi per una impresa i cui asset totali erano valutati a 568 milioni di dollari scesi a 376 milioni al 30 settembre. Il debito è diminuito nello stesso periodo ma il deficit coperto dagli azionisti era di 1,6 miliardi nel dicembre scorso e 1,7 miliardi nove mesi dopo. Riporto qui il testo del comunicato stampa, rimandado alla tabella dei finacials che troverete sul sito Worldspace per tutti gli approfondimenti del caso.
Per la radio digitale via etere o satellite non c'è proprio tregua. Se il confronto tecnologico con le fortune accumulate dalla multimedialità via Internet fa pensare, la lotta sul piano dei flussi di cassa, ora che tante dot.com sono tornate a grondare contante, non lascia troppo spazio all'ottimismo. E' un peccato perché Worldspace in Europa, in Italia in particolare, sta per portare una bella ondata di rinnovamento dell'offerta, sarebbe un peccato se non dovesse riuscirci non per colpa di un mercato poco ricettivo, ma su decisione degli investitori delusi. A questo proposito, il comunicato afferma che l'azienda è entrata in contatto con un certo numero di potenziali nuovi investitori e partner interessati a finaziare il suo debito e a immettere nuovi capitali nell'avventura. Worldspace confida di poter concludere una trattativa nei prossimi mesi. Si cerca insomma di vendere o di rilanciare, ma a questo punto sembra una corsa contro il tempo.

WORLDSPACE Satellite Radio Reports Third Quarter 2007 Results

SILVER SPRING, Md., Nov. 8 - WORLDSPACE(R) Satellite Radio (Nasdaq: WRSP), one of the world leaders in satellite-based digital radio services, today announced results for the third quarter of 2007 ended September 30, 2007. The Company ended the quarter with 177,644 subscribers worldwide, a loss of 12,689 from the close of the prior quarter, reflecting loss of subscribers in India and the planned cessation of marketing efforts in Europe ahead of the company's efforts to test and subsequently commence mobile service in Europe. In India, the Company lost 8,713 net subscribers during the third quarter of 2007, reflecting reduced marketing in that region, ending the period with 164,902 subscribers in India, 19% higher than at the end of the third quarter of 2006.

Other highlights include:
-- As previously announced, WorldSpace and Fiat Group Automobiles signed a first ever distribution and marketing agreement for satellite radio in Europe. WorldSpace expects that, beginning in late 2008, it will offer customers in Italy, through aftermarket equipment installations available through Fiat's vast dealership network and other outlets, a mobile satellite radio service with 40-50 channels of music, sports, news and entertainment programming. OEM or factory-installed equipment for Lancia, Fiat and Alfa Romeo models is expected to be available in late 2009.
-- During the quarter, in order to shore up its liquidity, WorldSpace has been engaged in discussions with a variety of potential investors and partners, strategic and financial, about equity and debt financings. The Company hopes to conclude a transaction in the next few months.
-- Content highlights include:
-- WorldSpace Satellite Radio broadcasts Live Earth 24-hour concert series on three of its branded channels, available to all subscribers worldwide.
-- EigoMANGA produces a Japanese Music Radio exclusively for WorldSpace's global pop channel, UPop. The weekly hour-long music show features a mix of Japanese pop and rock music currently leading the Oricon music charts in Japan.
-- WorldSpace provided live reporting and celebrity interviews from the Second Annual Virgin Festival by Virgin Mobile. Back-stage interviews aired on WorldSpace channels Bob and Radio Voyager along with the music of artists that performed live at the 2-day Virgin Festival.
-- WorldSpace India and MSN launched a three-month pilot of an internet radio service targeting Indian expatriates living in places such as the US, UK and Middle East. The service provides Indians with 24 hour access to five vibrant genres of Indian programming: Farishta (Hindi film classics), Sparsha (Kannada), Spandana (Telegu), Gandharv (Hindustani classical) and Shruti (Carnatic music).

WorldSpace Chairman and CEO Noah Samara stated, "We are very pleased with our continuing progress in Italy, as we have now lined up the right partners to make this launch successful, between Fiat, Telecom Italia and Fraunhofer for receiver development. We see great opportunities in this market for a robust mobile service offering, and are confident that, with our partners, we can devise a strategic course to implement our strategy and acquire the financial resources to support it. "In India, we are operating on a restrained basis," Samara said. "We are postponing marketing spending until we secure a repeater license that will enable us to provide seamless service to automobiles. We will then be in a position to leverage our streamlined presence in India to launch a successful mobile service there. Over all, we remain confident in the long-term viability and opportunities that our business represents and are encouraged by our initial discussions with a series of potential investors about additional financing."

Subscriber Growth

Gross subscriber adds of 20,132 in India were down from 25,092 in the second quarter of 2007. Net subscriber losses in India of 8,713 continued the downward trend from net additions of 3,261 in the second quarter of 2007, as the Company continued to minimize its marketing efforts this year. Subscriber declines outside of India primarily reflected the cessation of marketing outreach in Europe, as WorldSpace prepares for testing for its planned mobile offering in that region starting with Italy.

Revenue

For the third quarter of 2007, WorldSpace reported revenues of approximately $3.3 million, roughly flat with revenues of approximately $3.3 million for the third quarter of 2006. Subscription revenue was approximately $1.9 million for the third quarter of 2007, up slightly from approximately $1.8 million in the third quarter of 2006. On a sequential basis, subscription revenues in the third quarter of 2007 were flat with the approximately $1.9 million recorded in the second quarter of 2007.

Net Loss and EBITDA Loss

WorldSpace recorded a net loss for the third quarter of 2007 of $36.7 million, or $0.91 per share, compared with a net loss of $28.9 million, or $0.77 per share for the third quarter of 2006. WorldSpace had an EBITDA (earnings before interest income, interest expense, income taxes, depreciation and amortization) loss of $20.3 million for the third quarter of 2007, compared with an EBITDA loss of $27.1 million for the third quarter of 2006.

SAC and CPGA

Subscriber Acquisition Costs (SAC) were $10 in the third quarter of 2007 on a blended basis (India and the rest of the world) and $12 in India, compared with $21 on a blended basis and $22 in India for the second quarter of 2007. Cost Per Gross Addition (CPGA) decreased in the quarter to $80 on a blended basis, down from the $110 CPGA in the prior quarter, reflecting the lower marketing spend in India, where the CPGA decreased to $75 for the third quarter of 2007 from $108 in the second quarter of 2007. WorldSpace's CPGA is the fully-loaded cost to acquire each new subscriber, including SAC, as well as advertising and marketing expenses. SAC also represents a subsidy on equipment sales.

Nine Months' Results

For the first nine months of 2007, WorldSpace recorded net revenues of approximately $10.0 million, compared with net revenues of approximately $10.6 million in the same period in 2006. The net loss for the first nine months of 2007 was $123.5 million, or $3.12 per share, compared with a net loss of $94.8 million, or $2.54 per share, in the 2006 period. EBITDA in the first three quarters of 2007 was a loss of $70.0 million; in the 2006 period, EBITDA was a loss of $89.2 million.