Stern resta su Sirius e (previa app) su iTunes

Con un laconico comunicato ("details will follow") e un gioco di parole tra il verbo resign (dare le dimissioni) e l'iterativo re-signs (ri-firmare), il celebre conduttore radiofonico Howard Stern ha sciolto la lunga riserva sulla sua partecipazione al palinsesto radiofonico satellitare di Sirius XM, una piattaforma con oltre 17 milioni di abbonati. Stern trasmetterà da Sirius per altri 5 anni con grande gioia dei suoi fan e il disgusto di un esercito di detrattori che non sopportano il suo linguaggio estremo e i suoi sfottò.

L'annuncio mette fine anche a un'altra speculazione: in questi giorni si era diffusa la voce che voleva Stern prossimo alla firma con Apple, disposta a quanto si diceva a spendere milioni di dollari per avere Stern in esclusiva su iTunes. I rumors non sembravano molto attendibili per la verità, considerato il trattamento che Apple riserva di solito ai contenuti scollacciati (è di questi giorni la protesta di una rivista danese che si è vista negare la certificazione per una app iPad ricca di tette in copertina). Anche la radio su iPhone era incappata in una mezza censura, dopo che Apple aveva respinto come spam alcune app realizzate (per la verità con lo stampino) da uno sviluppatore attivo con il mercato delle stazioni locali americane. Ora Howard Stern sarà comunque disponibile su iTunes, ma solo attraverso la app dedicata agli abbonati al servizio, che usano iPhone su rete telefonica in alternativa alla ricezione satellitare.

I dettagli promessi dovrebbero completare quanto dichiarato qualche giorno prima, quando Howard pur sottolineando di non aver ancora firmato alcunché, aveva comunque ammesso di voler continuare con Sirius e ribadito l'opportunità di essere ascoltato anche online attraverso una app. Intanto io comincio a pensare che forse qualcuno dovrebbe proprio cominciare a finalizzare i progetti di radio satellitare in Europa: non mi pare inconcepibile una offerta di programmi pay su questo mezzo e le frequenze ci sono. Che diavolo stanno combinando quelli di Ondas Media (l'ultimo comunicato risale a ottobre)? E Solaris, la joint venture Eutelsat/Astra che ha dimostrato la sua tecnologia a Belfast, in occasione della digital radio conference?

THE REAL ANNOUNCEMENT: 5 MORE YEARS AT SIRIUS XM

“I’m not saying I signed anything, but this is the end. This is my final decision.” Howard said he’d mulled several offers, but “I never once considered going back to terrestrial...we are continuing on. I have signed a deal.” The deal will keep him at Sirius XM: “The real innovators and the real geniuses are here at Sirius Satellite Radio...I will be here for the next 5 years.”

Howard also announced that the show would now be made available on mobile devices: “As of today, our fans can get us on any of these apps.” The show will still start at 6am and end after 10, but “We will have more flexibility with our schedule...for now it’s four days a week but at some point, that’s going to change.” Robin said she had yet to sign: “I’m still looking at the end of my career here on December 31st.”

Sorpresa. Adesso Sirius XM guadagna

Legata a doppio filo agli andamenti del mercato dell'auto negli USA, Sirius XM ha chiuso il primo trimestre dell'anno con un profitto. Lo stesso periodo del 2009 si era chiuso con circa 240 milioni di perdite. Sirius, che non ha concorrenti sul mercato della radio satellitare, ha stretto accordi con tutti i costruttori che montano all'interno delle loro vetture i ricevitori digitali. L'offerta è allettante e molti acquirenti finiscono per diventare abbonati, in questo trimestre sono stati 170 mila in più. Ormai Sirius viaggia verso i 20 milioni di abbonati, uno zoccolo duro impossibile da battere. E' chiaro che l'offerta terrestre free di HD Radio è ancora lontana dalla credibilità.

Anche in questo condizioni apparentemente favorevoli c'è da togliersi il cappello davanti a Mel Karmazin, il patron di Sirius: un anno fa la sua azienda era data per spacciata ma lui ha saputo tener duro e in Liberty Media ha trovato un partner ideale, che ci ha messo i soldi senza pretendere il controllo della baracca. Tra gli analisti c'è chi continua a restare scettico, perché l'uscita dalla crisi del settore auto è tutt'altro che scontata e il titolo in borsa, pur registrando una crescita, è sostenuto da un azionariato fatto all'80% da piccoli risparmiatori, visto che gli istituzionali non hanno voluto rischiare. Il successo dovrà essere consolidato ma intanto Sirius stappa lo spumante.

Sirius Shapes Up

Madalina Iacob, 05.04.10

Satellite radio giant turns a first-quarter profit, but what happens when auto sales level off?

Sirius XM Radio ( SIRI - news - people ) swung to a profit in the first quarter thanks to rising auto sales that pushed up its subscriber base. Analysts say the company remains on solid footing as long as car sales are on an upward trend, hardly a guarantee.

The satellite radio company reported a first-quarter income of $41.6 million, or 1 cent per share, compared with a loss of $238.8 million or 7 cents, last year. Analysts expected the company to break even. Sales rose 11% to $670.6 million in the first-quarter.

Sirius XM Radio broadened its subscriber base by 171,441 customers in the first quarter and maintained its guidance that calls for 500,000 new subscribers in 2010.

"The continuing recovery of the automotive sector and expanding signs of increased consumer spending are encouraging signs for the company's growth prospects,” said Mel Karmazin, the company's CEO.

The improving outlook did little to boost shares on a day when the broader market was reeling over European debt worries, and Sirius shares dropped 4% to $1.18. Shares have been on the mend in general, though, rallying more than 90% since the beginning of 2010 as the U.S. economy recovers. Investors have also overcome fears of a potential bankruptcy after Liberty Media Corp ( LCAPA - news - people ) pumped cash in the overly levered company at the beginning of last year.

Sirius has an almost symbiotic relationship with the auto industry, thriving when more cars are sold since its service is frequently offered as a free trial to buyers. The company managed to retire some of its debt in the first quarter...

(continua su Forbes)

Sirius XM chiude tra anni. E invece no

La stampa americana continua a interrogarsi sui potenziali di crescita del settore, oggi monopolistico, della radio satellitare. Rick Aristotle Munarriz è un bravissimo analista di Motley Fool che cito spesso nella mia cronaca delle vicende di Sirius XM, l'operatore di radio numerica via satellite negli Stati Uniti. Questa volta Rick prende in esame un intervento di un notista economico del Washington Post a Motley Fool Radio, podcast dedicato alla finanza USA (numero del 23 aprile), a proposito delle scare possibilità di durata di Sirius. Secondo Frank Ahrens, il giornalista del quotidiano di Washington, "fra tre anni Sirius XM non esisterà" più.

Per Munarriz è una buona occasione per spiegare che invece Sirius è destinata a restare con noi per lungo tempo. Nessuno mette in questione il brillante futuro delle infrastrutture Web wireless, precisa Munarriz. Ma queste buone prospettive future non equivalgono ancora a una certezza, anche considerando i costi che i consumatori potrebbero dover sostenere per poter usufruire della larghezza di banda mobile sufficiente. E poi la radio satellitare di Sirius, ritornata in Borsa oltre la soglia del dollaro di quotazion, ha ancora parecchie frecce al suo arco, inclusa una ferrea alleanza con i costruttori di automobili che partecipano alla crescita del business. Anche quando la copertura 4G sarà molto capillare, sostiene infine Munarriz, Sirius avrà dalla sua qualcosa come 19 milioni di utenti e non è mai molto facile, in questi casi, imporre una modalità di fruizione alternativa.

Sirius XM Dead in 3 Years? Pshaw!

By Rick Aristotle Munarriz

April 26, 2010

Who tossed Sirius XM Radio (Nasdaq: SIRI) back into the death pool?

"I'm not sure there's going to be satellite radio in the next three years," Washington Post business reporter Frank Ahrens said during this weekend's Motley Fool Money Radio show.

Not again! Sirius XM is finally tasting success. Its stock has closed with a bid above $1 for eight consecutive trading days, leaving it just two days away from regaining its listing compliance with NASDAQ OMX Group.

The upbeat trading is warranted, as Sirius XM has been able to achieve positive cash flow, push back its debt repayment obligations, and has now come through with three consecutive quarters of net subscriber additions.

However, Ahrens isn't an ignorant basher. He is one of the platform's earliest adopters, stepping up as an XM subscriber more than eight years ago. He praises the product, though he's not sure of its lasting power.

Transitional radio

The crux of Ahrens' argument is that he sees satellite radio as a "transitional technology" -- basically "a bridge between where we were and your PC in the car."

In other words, just as it's hard to go back to terrestrial radio after sampling satellite radio, it will be hard to justify a premium, subscriber-based service when cars are tethered to everything that can be streamed off the Internet.

The mobile connectivity migration is happening. Automakers themselves have been slow in offering in-car wireless routers, but it's breaking through in the form of portable gadgetry. 3G and 4G smartphones can do it. The popularity of Novatel Wireless' (Nasdaq: NVTL) MiFi and Sierra Wireless' Overdrive mobile hot spots open the door for automakers and audio component manufacturers to introduce more Web-based radio.

There are a few shortcomings to the thesis that Sirius XM is on a limited lifeline, though.

For starters, it's hard to argue against an incentivized partner. Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) isn't paying royalties to automakers for installing audio jacks in cars. Pandora isn't going to share its meager revenue with car manufacturers if connectivity improves on the road. Satellite radio is different. It's been striking deals with car showrooms for years, making sure that the installation rates are high and actively promoted.

Another satellite radio lifeboat comes in the form of accessibility. Radio is supposed to be a passive, yet rewarding, entertainment process. Tracking down Internet streams, podcasts, and stored MP3s can turn into a cumbersomely sophisticated process. It may also prove to be overly distractive to someone manning the wheel.

The future of radio

I'm not naive. I think it's totally feasible that the socialization of the Web transforms the way we entertain ourselves on the road. In a few years, why can't a morning commute consist of customized hyperlocal news nuggets, audio messages from Facebook friends, text-to-speech conversions of Twitter followings, favorite podcasts, and play lists pooled together by like-minded buddies?

All of this can happen, but it doesn't mean that it will happen.

Along the way, Sirius XM will evolve. After all, if rival ear magnets improve their game over time, why not Sirius XM? The next generation of satellite receivers will make it easier to engage in e-commerce, provide more interactivity, and be more customizable.

The important thing to remember in the eventual flux is that Sirius XM has a huge lead right now with more than 18.9 million subscribers. Never underestimate the advantage of having a sizable paying audience.

Netflix (Nasdaq: NFLX) clearly won't be the only company providing unlimited movie streams in the future, but it has a base of 14 million members (and growing), which won't make it easy to overtake. Research In Motion (Nasdaq: RIMM) is still moving millions of BlackBerry handsets every passing quarter. Competition may intensify, but it's still blessed with a lead that isn't easily surmountable.

Content is kingfish

Ahrens' bearish perspective on the future of Sirius XM came up as he proposed that if Howard Stern is still on the air in three years, Sirius XM's model at that point wouldn't be able to pay for him.

It's an interesting point, but where would the more lucrative alternatives be for Stern and other high-priced talent? Terrestrial will only fade with broader choices, and free, ad-supported online content will never be caught writing big checks. Sirius XM should continue to be radio's great monetizer.

That's why I wouldn't be betting against Sirius XM right now -- or three years from now.

La rimonta di Sirius XM: conti a posto e iPhone alleato

Mel Karmazin ha vinto, almeno per il momento. Ed è più o meno come se una squadra di calcio fosse riuscita a rimontare un sei a zero vincendo sette a sei con due espulsi al primo tempo e l'unica punta chiamata a sostituire due portieri infortunati. La radio satellitare di Sirius XM è stata protagonista in questi nove mesi di un formidabile turnaround, una delle aziende più derelitte della borsa, sovraccarica di debiti e con un titolo sceso sotto i 10 centesimi di dollaro, ha registrato il miglior trimestre della sua storia e, per la prima volta, un flusso di cassa positivo. Il tasso di crescita del numero di abbonamenti torna anch'esso positivo (nuovi abbonati e rinnovi superano il numero di disdette). E come osserva Brandon Matthews di Seeking Alpha, testata online specializzata nella finanza delle startup, Sirius XM ha fatto capire una volta per tutte che la radio digitale satellitare non ha nulla a che fare con quella sfigata della radio commerciale terrestre "free to air" finanziata da spot pubblicitari che portano sempre meno soldi nelle casse delle varie Clear Channel e compagnia piangendo.

Nossignori, il brutto anatroccolo che tutti davano per spacciato, la tecnologia che avrebbe dovuto essere sopraffatta da Internet e iPhone è diventato di colpo un business finanziato dalla cosa più sicura che ci possa essere in questo momento: una base di abbonati fedeli, motivati ad acquistare e in costante espansione. E può permettersi il lusso di inseguire brand di successo come Apple sul loro stesso terreno, sfruttando possibili sinergie "comportamentali" degli ascoltatori ormai abituati a decidere quali programmi e musiche consumare. Altro che iPhone come killer di Sirius XM: il supertelefonino della Apple rischia di essere il migliore alleato della radio satellitare ora che da casa Sirius XM è arrivato SkyDock, rivoluzionario "cradle" per automobile con ricevitore satellitare integrato e software gratuito che trasforma iPhone in una perfetta centrale di controllo per la ricezione di centinaia di canali.
Il titolo in borsa è risalito oltre i 60 centesimi (chi a febbraio aveva investito mille dollari ora ne ha in tasca diecimila) e gli analisti, scrive Seeking Alpha, prevedono che possa presto arrivare a un dollaro, un dollaro e trenta. Con l'ottovolante delle trimestrali uno non può mai dire, ma se le tendenze attuali verranno confermate (e di mezzo ormai ci sono le festività e la voglia di fare regali), se Sirius XM è davvero riuscita nel miracolo di ribaltare una situazione disastrosa in una fase dell'economia da suicidio collettivo, si potrà affermare che qualunque "cosa" sia, è la radio digitale satellitare ad aver ucciso la radio.

Positive Cash Flow Signals New Era for Sirius XM

By Brandon Matthews

Yesterday, Sirius XM Radio (SIRI) reported its third quarter results, which can only be described as outstanding by any measure. Subscriber growth has returned, revenue has increased, costs continue to fall as any future liquidity questions have now been put to rest.
As critics attempt to spin the results, much like a sports fan would blame a referee for a favorite team’s loss, they ignore the most important facts that the company has now achieved positive free cash flow and cash flow break-even. This while beating earnings expectations by .02 per share. All of this has been achieved in just over 1 year since the merger of the two satellite radio giants, demonstrating the futility of betting against the future success of Sirius XM Radio.
Nothing worth having or doing ever comes easy. The N.Y. Yankees just won the World Series, but it took time to get there. There was doubt and fear earlier in the year. Injuries, losses and other obstacles that needed to be overcome. In the end, not a single critic nor their combined assaults were able to prevent the 2009 Yankees from realizing their destiny. Likewise, the verbal assaults that will no doubt come today from Sirius XM critics will have little in the way of fact and much in the way of misplaced negative speculation. Facts don’t lie. People Do.
We now begin a new era, as Sirius XM can no longer be justified as a radio company and compared to the likes of Clear Channel and other failing radio companies. The satellite radio provider has leapfrogged its way into a new weight class of subscription-based companies such as DirectTV and Comcast (CMCSA). Cash flow breakeven and free cash flow cannot be ignored. It cannot be denied. It means that all future growth will go directly to the bottom line, which means company shareholders will reap the rewards of victory.
As of Friday, shares of SIRI remain on sale at .62. Tuna Amobi of Standard & Poors has a 1.00 price target on the equity. Jim Goss of Barrington Research Associates has provided a target of 1.30. The current quarter looks to be the most promising quarter in the company’s history, as a new nationwide branding campaign is about to begin and retailers such as Apple (AAPL), Best Buy (BBY) and RadioShack (RSH) promote new satellite radio products. By December, everyone in America will know that Sirius XM Radio is here to stay. Demand will increase. Churn will drop. Retail will again be on the rise.
For the critics that remain, the game is about over. The clock is running out and they have no timeouts left. All they can do now is grab a face-mask and hurl insults as they cry of their misfortune. Enjoy the victory Sirius XM. You’ve earned it.

Sirius: un dock trasforma iPhone in radiosat

Si moltiplicano, dalla Borsa e dal mercato dei terminali utenti, i segnali positivi per i destini ultimi di Sirius XM, l'operatore di radio digitale satellitare che continua a lottare con una situazione finanziaria ancora lontana dalle soglie di sicurezza per il suo futuro. Mentre il titolo - come del resto anticipavo l'altro giorno riportando le considerazioni di un analista finanziario tedesco - consolida la sua crescita e tenuta, superando il limite dei 70 centesimi di dollaro (non sembra molto, ma Sirius pochi mesi fa era scesa negli inferi di una quotazione di soli 5 centesimi), mercoledì la società guidata da Mel Karmazin dovrebbe annunciare il nuovo ricevitore con docking station per iPod/iPhone, capace di trasformare lo smartphone di Apple in un ricevitore satellitare. In questo modo iPhone potrebbe fungere da strumento di accesso ai flussi Web di Sirius in mobilità, mentre la docking station consentirebbe di passare al satellite inserendo iPhone nell'apposito cradle, che dovrebbe essere fornito insieme a un kit per il montaggio a bordo dell'auto. Il kit converte i flussi audio in un segnale FM che viene irradiato dal sistema elettrico del veicolo, per la ricezione tramite autoradio convenzionale. Nella stessa data dovrebbe essere presentato anche un nuovo ricevitore con display a colori, dotato di analogo kit automobilistico, al costo 80 dollari (la docking station per iPhone dovrebbe costare qualcosa di più). La notizia riportata da Taylor-on-Radio Info è apparsa come scoop su XMFan.com un forum di appassionati della tecnologia Sirius.

Sirius XM stock reaches a new high for 2009, with the iPhone dock coming.

Mel Karmazin’s franchise-saving deal with Liberty Media’s John Malone produced a stability that allowed the stock to reach some giddy heights – if you can call 70 cents a share “giddy.” But the trend line’s been all positive lately, and especially cheery for speculators who bought bucketloads of “SIRI” stock when it was below 20 cents a share, or even less than a dime. And if the much-rumored Sirius XM accessory for the iPhone really does get announced on Wednesday, expect further Wall Street interest. XMFan.com says the “dock accessory” could potentially make any iPhone into a satellite radio, for about $100. Lots of folks would like to get Howard Stern on their iPhone, something which isn’t possible now because Sirius has held Stern back from its iPhone app. Also reportedly due on Wednesday – the unveiling of a new receiver with a color screen, for about 80 bucks.

Sirius XM, finalmente un segnale positivo in borsa

In questa curiosa analisi "tecnica" del titolo azionario di Sirius XM che ho scovato su un sito di informazione finanziaria tedesco, Börse-go.de, non contano fattori qualitativi come la situazione debitoria, le prospettive di mercato, l'andamento (negativo) delle vendite di automobili e autoradio digitali. Tutte le valutazioni sono puramente matematiche, come in uno studio di funzione. E questo studio suggerisce, spiega l'analista André Rain, che l'azione Sirius potrebbe raddoppiare o addirittura triplicare il suo valore entro fine anno, specie se riuscirà a consolidare in questi giorni la sua posizione attuale intorno ai 60 centesimi di dollaro. Giustamente Rain fa notare il crollo a 5 centesimi dello scorso aprile: in quattro mesi il rimbalzo è stato di ben dieci volte. La soglia di guardia è intorno ai 30 centesimi, sotto la quale potrebbero essere viceversa in vista nuovi crolli.
Oggi gli investimenti in borsa funzionano così. In termini assoluti, chi ha investito nella radio satellitare di Sirius fin dall'inizio, quando il titolo valeva 30 dollari, fa benissimo a chiedersi perché diavolo un'azienda con 20 milioni di clienti debba valere così poco (debiti a parte). Vista con gli occhi degli analisti tecnici, un titolo che promette una crescita del 100% in pochi mesi è una occasione ad altissimo rischio (a causa della volatilità storica) ma molto ghiotto.
Per Sirius e la sua tecnologia, finora così sfortunata, è una medaglia a due facce. Acquistare valore in borsa implica un rafforzamento sul piano finanziario. Ma quando i titoli valgono così poco c'è anche il rischio del passaggio di mano di ingenti volumi di azioni (e di voti in consiglio di amministrazione) con dirette implicazioni sui destini del management. E' il "bello della diretta" del mercato dei capitali, capace di premiare oltremisura le cattive idee di business e penalizzare quelle più estrose. Ma anche un luogo per nulla virtuale dove non è (quasi) mai detta l'ultima parola.

SIRIUS XM RADIO - Verdoppelt sich der Wert jetzt?

Sirius XM Radio Inc. - Kürzel: SIRI

Börse: Nasdaq in USD / Kursstand: 0,62 $

Rückblick: Die Sirius XM Radio Aktie vollzog 2008 einen massiven Crash und rutschte zunächst auch 2009 weiter ab. Ein Kurseinbruch bis auf 0,05 $ im Februar wurde aber sofort wieder gekauft, die Aktie startete zu einer deutlichen Kurserholung bis auf 0,63 $ im April.
Seit diesem Hoch konsolidiert die Aktie oberhalb von 0,30 $, wobei sie sich seit einigen Wochen wieder bullisch "aufbäumt". Schön zu sehen sind immer wieder deutliche Kaufwellen unter erhöhten Umsätzen, die dann moderat auskorrigiert werden. Zuletzt setzte die Aktie an die 0,48 $ Marke zurück und zieht nun deutlich an in Richtung Jahreshoch.
Charttechnischer Ausblick: Das charttechnische Setup zeigt starken, bullischen Druckaufbau, eine Entladung nach oben hin wird in Kürze möglich. Gelingt ein Ausbruch per Tages- und Wochenschluss über 0,63 $, könnte eine Kaufwelle für steigende Kurse bis 1,26 und ggf. 1,80 $ sorgen.
Unter 0,45 $ sollte die Aktie jetzt nicht mehr nachhaltig zurückfallen, dann droht eine Abwärtskorrektur bis 0,30 $. Unterhalb von 0,30 $ trübt sich das Chartbild deutlich ein, Rücksetzer bis 0,21 - 0,23 $ dürften dann folgen.

Sirius XM continua a lottare con i debiti

La lenta e penosa manovra di avvicinamento di Sirius XM al break even, al pareggio in bilancio, ha raggiunto ieri una nuova tappa quando la società ormai unica fornitrice di servizi di radiofonia digitale satellitare ha annunciato l'emissione di note di credito per un totale di 250 milioni di dollari. Le note verranno proposte a investitori istituzionali qualificati e serviranno a ripagare parte del debito che Sirius XM aveva contratto con Liberty Media nel corso del 2009 per salvarsi dall'amministrazione controllata. La scorsa settimana l'azienda guidata da Mel Karmazin aveva pubblicato l'ennesima trimestrale in rosso in una spirale debitoria che le impedisce per il momento di far leva sugli introiti del suo parco abbonati, tra l'altro in calo a causa dell'attuale situazione del mercato dell'auto. I ricevitori satellitari vengono installati a bordo dei veicoli nuovi e di questi tempi le vendite di automobili non vanno propriamente a gonfie vele. La notizia della perdita viene compensata per Karmazin da diversi segnali positivi, incluso il completamento dell'acquisizione di XM Satellite e la diminuzione del costo-per-nuovo-abbonato. Anche le azioni Sirius vanno leggermente meglio al Nasdaq, dove avevano raggiunto un minimo di 5 centesimi. Il titolo è sceso sotto il dollaro dallo scorso settembre, ma oggi vale più di 50 cents.
Nel 1992 uno degli slogan con cui Bill Clinton riuscì a evitare la rielezione di George Bush padre fu "it's the economy, stupid". In fin dei conti è lo stesso principio che ha portato alla sconfitta del figlio e che dovrebbe essere incorniciato e appeso in tutti gli uffici di chi si occupa di radio digitale.

Sirius XM Radio offers $250 mln notes to repay debt
Wed Aug 12, 2009

* Sirius to offer $250 mln in senior secured notes
* Net proceeds to repay Liberty Media Corp

SAN FRANCISCO, Aug 12 (Reuters) - Sirius XM Radio Inc on Thursday said it would offer $250 million in senior secured notes with net proceeds going to repay some of its debt obligations to Liberty Media Corp.
The notes, which will come due in 2015, will be offered to qualified institutional buyers to repay certain debt under its credit agreement with Liberty Media Corp.
Earlier this year Sirius secured millions in financing from John Malone's Liberty Media Corp, which owns TV home shopping network QVC.
Pay-radio operator Sirius, which hosts programs by Howard Stern and Oprah Winfrey as well as Major League Baseball, reported a second quarter loss last week due to debt-related charges and a floundering auto industry.
Shares in New York-based Sirius closed up 2.64 percent at 51 cents on the Nasdaq and were flat after-hours.

***

Sirius XM posts net loss but raises outlook

By Franklin Paul – Thu Aug 6

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Sirius XM Radio Inc. on Thursday posted a second-quarter loss on debt-related charges and the auto industry slowdown, but the pay-radio operator said it sees signs of a recovery and raised its 2009 outlook for operating earnings.
Shares of Sirius, which have traded for less than $1 since last September, slipped about 4 percent after the company reported a net loss attributable to common shareholders of $157.3 million, or 4 cents a share.
Excluding $108 million of debt-related charges and other special items, the company lost 1 cent a share, matching analysts estimates, according to Reuters Estimates.
The company, which earlier this year secured financing from John Malone's Liberty Media Corp to stave off looming debt problems, said subscribers to the pay-radio service declined by 186,000 from the first quarter, better than many analyst expectations.
Cost-cutting -- reflected in a drop in the cost of acquiring a new subscriber to $57 from $71 a year ago -- was a primary driver of the company's improved financial results.
On the revenue side, Sirius XM Chief Executive Mel Karmazin said he sees positive potential for subscription sales as the beleaguered auto industry inches toward a revival.
"Declines (in car sales) appear to have bottomed out," he said on a conference call with analysts. "Production schedules are resuming, 'cash for clunker' programs are working and we are cautiously optimistic that the second half of 2009 will show improvement."
Sirius XM, home to programs by Howard Stern and Oprah Winfrey as well as Major League Baseball, ended the period with 18.4 million subscribers. It marked an increase in original equipment manufacturer (OEM) customers from a year ago -- those gains from radios built into new cars -- but its sales to customers who buy radios in stores fell sharply.
"While (the decline) improved sequentially on signs of auto stabilization, the impact seems muted by retail channel decay," said Standard & Poor's analyst Tuna Amobi.
Pro forma revenue rose 1 percent to $607.8 million, on par with analysts' views. The pro forma figures reflect the fact that Sirius completed its purchase of rival XM Satellite Radio last July and compare the latest results as if they were a single company a year ago, also making some accounting adjustments for the transaction.
It raised its 2009 outlook for adjusted income from operations to more than $400 million, fueled by accelerated cost-cutting. It was the second time it lifted the forecast, after raising it in May to $350 million from $300 million.
"We think the stronger subs performance, as well as better-than-expected profitability, in the quarter, suggests this number should be attainable," J.P. Morgan analyst Lev Polinsky said in a note to clients.
The outlook improvement comes as more subscribers to Sirius signed up for premium programing packages and on higher prices for users with multiple subscriptions.
In addition, churn, a measure of the number of customers who quit the service, increased from one year ago, but, at 2.0 percent was smaller than in the first quarter, and better than some analysts expectations.
Shares traded at about 52 cents each on Nasdaq, down from 54 cents on Wednesday.
The stock has climbed from a 52-week low of 5 cents a share in February, after Malone's cash infusion allayed fears the company could become insolvent. In August the stock rallied further, fueled by optimism about new revenue streams, the launch of its iPhone software and the "cash for clunkers" car-buying program.

Anche con iPhone Sirius XM non decolla

Nella discussione sulle prospettive di mercato della radio digitale satellitare di Sirius XM spuntava spesso il riferimento alla diversificazione dei canali distributivi. Molti analisti consigliavano a Sirius di non vincolare troppo la propria offerta al satellite ma di sfruttare i canali in streaming di Internet, magari facendo leva su dispositivi di successo come Apple iPhone. Ebbene, da qualche settimana la tanto attesa "app" di Sirius XM per lo smartphone più fico der bigoncio si può scaricare da iTunes. E com'è andata? E' un po' presto per dire quali saranno gli effetti sugli abbonamenti a Sirius, ma intanto sono spuntate le prime voci scettiche. Intanto sembra che l'applet di Sirius funzioni malissimo e abbia ricevuto un sacco di commenti negativi dagli utenti. Sto leggendo dalla solita newsletter di Tom Taylor i pareri espressi dal titolare di una società di consulenza, The Jacobs Media, specializzata in servizi per le stazioni radio musicali. Jacobs Media vanta già un portafoglio di una ottantina di applicazioni per iPhone personalizzate per altrettante stazioni radio che vogliono farsi ascoltare sul telefonino della Mela. Sul sito di iTunes l'applicazione Sirius può essere scaricata gratuitamente, ma ovviamente l'ascolto dei canali richiede l'abbonamento. Sembra tra l'altro che non tutti i canali satellitari siano disponibili e mancherebbe addirittura il mitico conduttore Howard Stern. Cosa che gli utenti, inclusi alcuni clienti Sirius, non hanno per niente apprezzato.

Ma più in generale comincia a farsi strada l'idea che a una radio satellitare come Sirius la diversificazione dei canali potrebbe non bastare, perché a trasmettere via Internet sarebbero già in troppi. Gigaom ospita un bel commento di Kevin Kelleher sulla questione (grazie a Francesco per la segnalazione). Secondo l'editorialista i concorrenti di Sirius sul Web - le varie Pandora, Wunder Radio, Slacker Radio, per non parlare di streaming media server "personali" come ooTunes, che installato sul computer mette online la vostra intera collezione musicale - sono tutti in grado di offrire contenuti a costi molto più convenienti. Sirius nel contesto in continua ebollizione della musica in mobilità sarebbe destinata a restare quello che è, una "autoradio molto fighetta". Ma con i costi infrastrutturali che ha, il modello non sarà sostenibile a lungo...

Why the Mobile Web Won’t Save Sirius XM

Kevin Kelleher | Friday, July 3, 2009

Things may finally be turning around for troubled satellite radio venture Sirius XM. Following a long and costly merger, the company became desperate for new financing just as credit dried up, and managed to avert bankruptcy only by selling 40 percent of itself to John Malone in exchange for a loan paying 15 percent interest. Last week, Sirius secured another half-billion dollars in high-interest debt, and CEO Mel Karmazin got a 20 percent raise and the option to buy 120 million new shares to celebrate his success.
Success, that is, if you define the word as simply avoiding failure. Things may be turning around, but Sirius XM has a long way to go before it finds true success. It needs to create a lot of new revenue to pay off all that debt. It needs to reverse the deterioration in the number of net subscribers that took place last quarter, when they fell 2.1 percent to 18.6 million. It needs to expand its allure beyond the car market, which will remain in a slump for the foreseeable future.
With the launch of Sirius XM’s iPhone app, the hope has emerged that the mobile market will provide the answer. The Sirius XM App is the fifth most popular download in Apple’s App Store, although the drop from the No. 3 spot since last week suggests demand is waning fast as current Sirius subscribers download it. That may help deter more subscribers from canceling their Sirius accounts, but will it lure in new ones?
To answer that, you need to ask whether there is a home for subscription-based satellite radio on mobile devices. Sirius XM subscribers pay between $9.99 and $19.99 a month, although the two most popular plans are priced at $12.95 and $16.95 a month. But to listen to satellite radio on the web, whether on PCs or mobile devices, costs another $2.99 a month.
New subscribers enticed by the iPhone app will need to shell out $240 a year for the music, and that includes strings such as awkward integration with the iTunes music store and no access to popular programs like Howard Stern or MLB Play-by-Play (meanwhile, MLB.com is starting to stream videos of select games as well as highlights of other games to the iPhone).
The problem is, other companies are showing that you can stream radio content to the iPhone — minus satellites — for a whole lot cheaper. Pandora, ooTunes, Wunder Radio, Slacker Radio and others stream music without monthly fees. None are perfect, but they are free. The future of mobile music looks like Spotify, which many consider the ideal music app and which is finding a home on Google’s Android phones. That could prompt Apple into allowing Spotify apps into its store, and that in turn could pave the way for other on-demand music sites like Rhapsody to follow.
The real allure of streaming radio on mobile devices isn’t just that we can avoid the commercials, bland playlists and inane DJ banter that pollutes the FM band. It’s that they can stream music more cheaply than costly satellite networks and, more importantly, that can be interactive, allowing we listeners to discover new music at will, to personalize and share playlists and to listen to what we want, when we want.
It’s taking some time, but it’s the direction mobile music is heading. It’s not, however, a world in which satellite radio can thrive. So Sirius XM is likely to remain what it is today — a very fancy car radio. And right now, that’s not a strong enough foundation on which to build a true turnaround.

Royalties, gli abbonati pagheranno al posto di Sirius XM

Nuovi guai in vista per l'operatore satellitare Siurius XM, che dopo il merger deve poter contare sui flussi di cassa generati dagli abbonamenti per risolvare la sua non facile situazione debitoria. Ma conservare la fedeltà degli abbonati rischia di diventare problematico perchè dopo gli aumenti delle tariffe entrati in vigore nei mesi scorsi ora l'operatore ha preso una decisione che non risulterà troppo popolare: a partire dal mese prossimo Sirius XM trasferirà agli ascoltatori la tassa di circa due dollari attualmente versata per coprire i costi dei diritti sui brani musicali trasmessi, diritti che vengono percipiti non dagli autori ma dagli interpreti dei brani e dalle loro case discografiche.
E' la stessa tassa che discografici e cantanti vogliono imporre alle stazioni radiofoniche terrestri (con un progetto di legge molto controverso) e che le stazioni radio via Web e gli operatori di radio digitale come Sirius XM versano da tempo, tra l'altro con aumenti anche cospicui. Fino a oggi Sirius si sobbarcava il balzello. In questi giorni, un memo interno fatto circolare su Internet (ecco per esempio il testo pubblicato da Satellite Guys, un forum di appassionati) ha rivelato l'intezione di riversarlo su chi si abbona.
Dopo aver salvato la sua azienda per il rotto della cuffia, con il prestito di un altro operatore satellitare, Liberty Media, per Mel Karmazin, audace e fortunato Ceo di Sirius XM, la fedeltà degli abbonati è una priorità assoluta. Quanta pressione potrà permettersi di esercitare su di loro? E se l'azienda dovesse fallire, chi trasmetterà i brani musicali le cui royalties vanno a rimpinguare solo le tasse dei discografici?

Imminente la satradio di Sirius su iPhone

Sarah McBride del WSJ approfondisce le condizioni al contorno dell'imminente rilascio della applicazioni iPhone per la ricezione, attraverso la infrastruttura cellulare, dei contenuti radio satellitari di Sirius XM. Si stima che negli Stati Uniti gli utenti di iPhone sia 7 milioni e l'ascolto dei canali tematici dell'operatore satellitare potrebbe rientrare nei loro gusti da "geek".

May 6, 2009

Getting Sirius: Satellite Radio Broadens Reach

By SARAH MCBRIDE

Garrett Huffman of San Francisco loves the Sirius satellite radio that came with his Volkswagen Jetta so much that he would like to get another one for his waterskiiing boat.

But the 31-year-old says he's going to hold off until he can get the new Sirius iPhone application, which Sirius XM Radio Inc. has promised to launch in the next few weeks. Compared to buying and installing a Sirius satellite radio on the motorboat, "that would save me money," says Mr. Huffman, a shipping manager for Chevron Corp.
In releasing the new application, which will allow customers to stream satellite radio over their iPhones, Sirius XM appears to be tacitly conceding that the satellite-delivery system that once was cutting edge now has competition far beyond what its founders imagined. Sirius must prove it can hold its own in a world where cars have iPod jacks and phones can go online, allowing people to stream free music stations. And cars, where many people do most of their radio listening, are expected increasingly to have built-in Internet access.
That's good news for consumers, who will have another way to listen to Sirius, which for a $12.95-a-month subscription offers 130 channels of music and talk programming, including stations created by artists like hip-hop star Eminem and homemaking icon Martha Stewart. Currently, most Sirius listeners tune into specialized radios that get their programming from satellites. The radios can cost $200 to $300 for the most popular models.
Tapping into alternative distribution methods could help Sirius XM recapture some of the momentum it has ceded to Internet services like Pandora.com, which allows listeners to customize music stations for free. XM, which Sirius acquired last year, already has a BlackBerry application, allowing subscribers to catch the separate XM service on their Blackberry devices. And Sirius is pushing online delivery of its radio service. The company is currently offering Sirius subscribers an Internet-compatible radio made by Grace Digital Audio for $149.99. The service, which offers about 80 channels, requires an Internet subscription at $12.95 a month.
For some consumers, satellite radio offers programming they aren't able to find on the Internet, on over-the-airwaves radio, or elsewhere. Mr. Huffman of San Francisco, for instance, who bought his satellite-radio-equipped Jetta at the beginning of the year, says he has fallen for a politics-oriented station called Potus, an inside-the-Beltway acronym for President of the United States. "I'm a confused conservative," he says, and the station gives him a "midline between right and left" that he couldn't find on regular radio stations.
The iPhone application likely will require purchasing a subscription, although Sirius XM has announced few details of how the plan will work. An estimated seven million people in the U.S. have iPhones, estimates Richard Klugman, an analyst at Majestic Research. Exposure for the Sirius service on the iTunes Store site of Apple Inc. could draw valuable attention from the gadget-loving crowd that flocks to the site.
Analysts say the iPhone application will probably be considered a success if it can simply help retain Sirius subscribers who might otherwise be tempted to defect for a service that works better with their phones. "It's all about minimizing churn," says Joseph Stauff, an analyst at CRT Capital Holdings LLC. Sirius XM has managed to keep the percentage of paying subscribers who give up the service after trying it out fairly low; in the last quarter, that figure was 1.8%. Overall, Sirius XM gained 1.6 million net new subscribers last year, or more than 8%, to about 19 million.
To be sure, satellites will remain important for Sirius XM. That's especially true in parts of the country that don't have good mobile-phone coverage or where the selection of free radio stations is limited. "There are plenty of places where it's going to be more efficient to use the satellite," says Greg Maffei, chief executive officer of Liberty Media Corp., which took a 40% stake in Sirius XM earlier this year.
A challenge for Sirius XM is the slump in car sales, since many listeners first encounter the radio service while driving. But many car companies say a growing share of their new vehicles are being equipped with satellite radios. For instance, Jon Bucci, vice president of Toyota Motor Sales USA, says satellite radio was factory installed in four times as many cars in the year ended March 31 as in the year-earlier period. Growth rates should be similar this year, he says.

E se Stern lasciasse Sirius per iPhone?

Sempre attraverso Podcasting News (grazie ancora una volta a Francesco) arriva una curiosa analisi statistica effettuata da Chris Bulger, della società specializzata in "Web analytics" (misurazione dell'audience dei siti Web) Compete. Bulger dice di essere riuscito a contare gli ascoltatori che accedono ai contenuti della radio satellitare Sirius XM attraverso Internet, aspettandosi di trovare una popolazione piuttosto variegata, con tanti canali ascoltati da piccoli gruppi. E invece no. Anche su Internet la parte del leone nel bouquet offerto da Sirius la fa il famoso e irriverente DJ Howard Stern, lo "shock jock" (come dire il dj-choc) più famoso d'America. Quasi il 30 % dell'audience di Sirius su Internet si sintonizza sui suoi programmi. A questo punto Bulger si chiede che cosa succederà a Sirius qualora Stern dovesse davvero decidere di andarsene, come si va dicendo da mesi. Per farlo restare, l'operatore guidato da Mel Karmazin dovrebbe sborsare un sacco di soldi che non ha. Ma se lo lascia andare, rischia di perdere preziosi abbonati.
Bulger si spinge a ipotizzare che Stern potrebbe anche decidere di mettersi in proprio su Internet, con una Web radio o un podcast. «E se nel 2011 - si chiede l'analista - l'applicazione per iPhone più gettonata fosse proprio un Howard Stern for iPhone?". Podcasting News segnala per esempio che alcuni conduttori radiofonici famosi stanno già optando per il podcast. Uno di loro si chiama Adam Carolla e avrebbe raggiunto in pochi mesi una audience di un quarto di milione di navigatori che scaricano i programmi di Carolla Radio http://carollaradio.com/. Fino a febbraio e negli ultimi tre anni Carolla aveva uno show mattutino su CBS Radio. Qui trovate uno degli ultimi podcast, Carolla and Mike Tyson.

The ‘King of All Internet Radio’
Written by Chris Bulger April 20th, 2009

For the past few years, I have not only been a Sirius Satellite Radio subscriber, but also one of its biggest fans. Sirius replaced the unmanageable amount of mix CD’s that littered my car and put all the music and entertainment in one small piece of equipment. Sirius has also changed the way I listen to music at work. On in the background all day, Sirius Internet Radio provides me with the soundtrack to my daily life. While some days call for an upbeat tempo with Sirius Hits 1 and some days require a more mellow choice like Cinemagic, my channel of choice is Howard 100. And who can blame me - the home of chaotic entertainment that is amusing day after day, providing everything from the ‘Wack Pack’ to Robin’s News. I wanted to know if others shared in my loyalty to Howard 100 when listening to Sirius Internet Radio, and if not, what are the subscribers listening to?

To do this, I looked at the population of Sirius Internet Radio listeners and then analyzed what channels they are tuning into during a month. Keep in mind that one listener can fall into multiple buckets throughout the month. Here’s what I found:

• Howard is King: 28.4% and 16.1% of Sirius Internet Listeners tune in to Howard 100 and Howard 101, respectively. Just like in his days of old on terrestrial radio, Howard Stern continues to be the most listened to channel.
• Rock and Pop lead in the music categories: Sirius Hits 1 commands the top music channel with 10% of Listeners heading to this channel. However, while people are tuning in to hear the latest pop hits, just as many people are tuning in to listen to the two classic rock channels (Classic Rewind and Classic Vinyl).
• While not on the list here, Sirius NFL Radio does break into the Top 10 listened to channels during the NFL season. 9.3% of Sirius Internet Unique Listeners listened to Sirius NFL Radio in September ‘08. This was #4 overall!
• Online listeners love their caroling: Sirius XM Pops and Cinemagic, two channel dedicated to Holiday music, were in the Top 10 listened to channels in December ‘08. Cinemagic was the 2nd most listened to channel in December ‘08 with 14.2% of Sirius Internet Listeners listening to Holiday music. The top channel was still Howard 100.

With a large percentage of listeners tuning into Howard 100 and Howard 101 on SIRIUS Internet Radio, what will happen to Sirius XM Radio if Stern were to leave at the end of his contract in 2010? Howard Stern commands a large audience, many of which might cancel their service if Stern were to leave at the end of his contract. As Internet Radio continues to grow, Stern’s next move could be to bring his own channel to the World Wide Web. I can see it now, the Stern Internet Radio iPhone app being the biggest app of 2011.

Sirius XM, prima radio universale. E tra poco, iPhone

Annunciato all'inizio dell'anno per questa primavera, sarebbe già disponibile da Sirius XM il primo ricevitore integrato capace di ricevere l'intera offerta combinata dei due operatori radiosatellitari americani, che si sono fusi lo scorso anno. Finora gli abbonati ai due servizi non hanno avuto la possibilità di sintonizzarsi con il loro vecchio apparato sui segnali dell'ex concorrente, perché le due infrastrutture satellitari (una geostazionaria, l'altra a orbita polare) non lo consentivano. Il primo ricevitore universale Sirius XM si chiama "Mirge" e costa 249 dollari sul Sirius XM Shop.
Oggi Sirius ha anche reso nota l'intenzione di lanciare quanto prima una sua applicazione per l'ascolto dei canali satellitari via Internet su dispositivi Apple iPhone/iTouch, una decisione che secondo alcuni commentatori potrebbe essere tardiva. PodcastingNews (grazie a Fransceso Delucia per la citazione) osserva giustamente che all'epoca del lancio dei servizi Sirius/XM, la radio satellitare aveva due vantaggi sicuri: la varietà della programmazione e la copertura a livello nazionale. Oggi, osserva la testata online, milioni di navigatori sono sommersi di contenuti musicali che arrivano dalla rete.
In queste settimane Sirius è uscita per il rotto della cuffia e solo temporaneamente da una pesante situazione debitoria grazie all'intervento dei capitali di Liberty Media. L'altro ieri sono stati annunciati i risultati "pro forma" del 2008 (i dati non sono Gaap, cioè non sono certificati) e per la prima volta nella sua storia l'azienda può vantare un piccolo margin on operation trimestrale. Su un fatturato di 644 milioni di dollari nell'ultimo quarto dell'anno, l'utile operativo è di quasi 32 milioni, anche se con tutte le altre spese e gli interessi che ha in ballo la perdita rimane di 248 milioni. L'anno si chiude con un ricavato di 2,46 miliardi di dollari e una perdita netta di 900 milioni. Migliorano parametri fondamentali come il costo di acquisizione per nuovo abbonato (sono più di 19 milioni al momento).

Sirius XM trova i soldi cedendo il 40% a Liberty

Per il rotto della cuffia ma Sirius XM ce l'ha fatta e Mel Karmazin il suo testardo (ma un po' confuso) nocchiero mantiene per ora il controllo del timone grazie al denaro di Liberty Media. La cosa meno credibile nella vicenda è che uno come John Malone di Liberty Media si accontenti di fare da cavaliere bianco solo per fare dispiacere al rivale Charlie Ergen di EchoStar.
Riassumendo. Sirius XM, piena di debiti, si avvicina alla pericolosa scadenza di marted' 17 febbraio (data di maturazione di un debito di 170 milioni) quando sui giornali compare la notizia che Ergen sta rastrellando il debito dai creditori del satcaster radiofonico con la chiara intenzione di acquisirne il controllo. Karmazin si mette a rinegoziare il dovuto e intanto cerca un white knight, uno che gli dia soldi senza togliergli la poltrona di CEO. E lo trova in Malone, che gli dà mezzo miliardo di dollari in cambio del 40% di Sirius. Così facendo Malone eredita un bel po' di debito, ma anche una quota dei 2 miliardi di dollari che 20 milioni di abbonati versano ogni anno nelle casse di Sirius. Ora questi abbonati possono restare tranquilli: almeno per un po' le decine di canali di Sirius XM continueranno a cadere dal cielo. Se la buriana dovesse passare e il mercato dell'auto riprendersi, Sirius potrebbe anche rivelarsi un business di successo caratterizzato, come spesso accade, da un inizio un po' difficile. Qualcosa però non mi convince del tutto: perché arrivare sull'orlo del baratro trascinandosi dietro una situazione così penosa se la soluzione era a portata di mano? Perché non bussare prima alla porta degli operatori di tv satellitare (che potevano essere sicuramente attratti dall'idea di poter offrire almeno una tipologia di servizi alternativi all'utenza mobile, oltre che ai couch potatoes della peggior risma)? Perché tutti questi patemi con un merger faticosissimo che ora si rivela non decisivo considerando che Sirius poteva cercare Malone anche quando era da sola? Ecco come spiega le ultime frenetiche ore di Sirius XM la splendida newsletter quotidiana di Tom Taylor:

Mel Karmazin gets his $530 million lifeline from John Malone at Liberty – but it’s expensive.

Sirius XM had to give Malone 40% of the company and agree to pay 15% interest on the senior secured notes due in December 2012. But it’s not a “change of control” and it keeps Charlie Ergen at EchoStar and Dish from dictating the future of America’s only licensed satellite radio operator. That’s what would be happening, if Sirius XM had missed yesterday’s debt payment on the $171.6 million note now held by Ergen. (Or else Karmazin would’ve alienated his creditors by declaring Chapter 11.) Now things go on pretty much as they were, with Sirius XM getting new working capital as it waits out the depression in auto sales. I told Bloomberg last week that Mel Karmazin’s been a little like Star Trek’s Captain Kirk – he somehow finds a way out of impossible situations. He did it again, but it was close.
It’s a two-phase rescue plan for Sirius XM (actually three phases).
Phase 1 – a very important check for $250 million now and a further $30 million later that gives John Malone’s Liberty group a senior secured note paying 15% interest. Phase 2 – an additional loan of $150 million to handle some debt of predecessor XM Satellite Radio. Also, Liberty agrees to purchase up to $100 million of XM’s existing debt. When all that’s done, Liberty gets 12.5 million shares of preferred stock that’s convertible into ownership of 40% of Sirius common stock. And two Liberty executives – probably John Malone and his president/CEO Greg Maffei – will take seats on the board of Sirius XM when phases 1 and 2 are done.
The EchoStar/Dish guy got his debt payment yesterday from Sirius XM, on time – and he probably made money on the short-term investment. Presumably he bought the paper worth over $170 million in face value at some kind of discount from the hedge fund that used to own it. So he gets his dough, even if he wasn’t able to bring Sirius XM into his orbit. (And we still don’t really know the motivations and goals of either Charlie Ergen at EchoStar/Dish or John Malone at Liberty/DirecTV). Meanwhile, Ergen maintains a relationship with Sirius XM on a different level - his Dish network uses some music channels from the satcaster as part of its menu of audio services. But maybe Liberty's not safe yet. The Wall Street Journal suggests that Ergen could buy still more of the Sirius XM debt and then "refuse to extend the maturity. Liberty might then back out of the deal." Ergen's offer was for more money - $700 million - but he would've taken 51% of the company and that would have triggered a DOJ review that would drag on for months.

Accordo fatto tra Sirius XM e Liberty Media?

Sirius XM, secondo le principali fonti informative economiche americane, sarebbe vicina a un accordo con John Malone, presidente di Liberty Media. L'operatore di televisione satellitare immetterebbe centinaia di milioni di dollari nelle esangui casse di Sirius mettendola in grado di affrontare le prime scadenze dei creditori e in cambio otterrebbe una quota della azienda - quasi il 50% - e una cospicua presenza nel board (anche se l'attuale CEO Mel Karmazin manterrebbe l'agognato controllo). La stampa continua a manifestare qualche dubbio su quello che potrebbe accadere, perché non è detto che tra Sirius e Liberty possano esseci tutte queste strategie e il riutilizzo di infrastruttura e banda per altri scopi potrebbe determinare uno scontro con il regolatore FCC. Secondo il New York Times è anche possibile che Malone abbia semplicemente individuato un buon business in una azienda che ha problemi di capitale ma mantiene un assett di 20 milioni di abbonati che generano 2 miliardi di dollari all'anno. Inserita nel contesto di un gruppo più solido, Sirius potrebbe sanare il suo debito e affrontare una fase di positivo rilancio.

Ecco i link agli articoli del New York Times e di Bloomberg. E questo è invece il link all'articolo del Wall Street Journal che mi è arrivato, da Parigi, da Albino Pedroia, consulente e docente di teoria dei mezzi di comunicazione di massa (e fedele lettore di RP, grazie Albino).

Fallisce anche la musica in ascensore

Mentre Sirius XM potrebbe essere sull'orlo della dichiarazione di bancarotta (ma alcuni commentatori dicono che il CEO, Mel Karmazin, sta solo minacciando, per cercare di strappare al potenziale acquirente EchoStar migliori condizioni di scambio debt-for-equity: tu sei mio creditore, io ti pago nel numero di azioni che voglio io), un altro marchio storico, Muzak, è davvero entrato in Chapter 11. Dagli anni '30, Muzak è l'azienda che diffonde musica negli ascensori, una icona della American way of life. Insieme a Xerox, Muzak è un brand commerciale entrato nei dizionari, anche se è sinonimo di musica noiosa e fortunatamente breve. In realtà oggi il suo impero si estende anche alla musica d'ambiente per negozi, centri commerciali, uffici, ma è anche lui è un impero fondato sui debiti. Quelli nei confronti di chi detiene i diritti musicali e le case discografiche. E siamo tornati di nuovo alla questione dei diritti, del loro prezzo, del peso che questo prezzo comincia a esercitare sulle piattaforme di distribuzione della musica. Le radio falliscono, la radio satellitare fallisce, Internet è ancora un modello tutto da verificare e adesso fallisce anche la musica in ascensore. E' sicuramente il caso di fare qualche ripensamento sul modo in cui le società di raccolta gestiscono le entrate dei musicisti, perché tra un po' non ci sarà più nessuno ad acquistare i diritti di distribuzione.
Intanto sarebbe stata spostata al 23 febbraio, secondo Rapid Tv, la gara d'asta per la vendita degli asset di 1 Worldspace, operatore satellitare per il quale è stato riportato l'interessa da parte di SES Astra. Rapid Tv segnala anche la pubblicazione di un aggiornamento dei bilanci e delle esposizioni di Worldspace presso la corte distrettuale fallimentare del Delaware che ne gestisce la pratica (anche Muzak ha dichiarato fallimento presso lo stesso tribunale). Dai prospetti pubblicati sul sito si evince una esposizione di 110.000 dollari per Worldspace Italia. Sono venuto in possesso di alcune fotografie della nuova sede della filiale italiana di Worldspace in via Tortona a Milano (ne ha parlato qualche mese fa anche Prima Comunicazione). L'edificio è ancora in ristrutturazione e ora bisognerà attendere l'esito dell'asta per vedere che cosa accadrà. Worldspace in Europa avrebbe dovuto partire proprio in questo periodo e ufficialmente il progetto non è mai stato accantonato. Forse la cessione degli asset della casa madre potrebbe aprire la strada a nuove opportunità e servizi. Il contesto generale non lascia presagire niente di buono.

Muzak Files Chapter 11 to Refinance Debt

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Published: February 10, 2009

Muzak Holdings, the maker of background music heard in elevators, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on Tuesday.

The company had a heavy debt load, and it filed to try to refinance some of its debt. In a court filing, the company listed its total debt at $100 million to $500 million.
The filing listed assets of less than $50,000, but a company spokeswoman, Meaghan Repko, said total assets were about $320 million. That included the Muzak operating company, she said, which also filed for bankruptcy. She declined to provide a more exact figure for the company’s total debt.
Many of Muzak’s biggest creditors are music companies that license songs for use on Muzak playlists. While the company is known as the creator of elevator music, its business is now more focused on creating playlists for use in retail stores, installing professional sound systems and providing other services.
Muzak, which is based in Fort Mill, S.C., filed for protection in the United States Bankruptcy Court in the District of Delaware in Wilmington.
The company expects to continue to operate. A statement said it had “sufficient means” to support itself through a bankruptcy reorganization.
Among its biggest unsecured creditors is U.S. Bank, which is owed $371 million according to a court filing.
The American Society of Composers, Authors and Publishers is owed $213,020, the filing said.
Other top unsecured creditors include vendors like Universal Music Enterprises, owed $349,321; EMI Capital Records, $320,323; AT&T, $257,384; and Dish Network, $251,276
Sony Music, BMG Film and Television Music, United Parcel Service and Virgin Records were also listed among the unsecured creditors.
Kirkland & Ellis was hired as the company’s bankruptcy law firm. Moelis & Company will serve as the financial adviser.

Anche Liberty Media interessata a Sirius XM?

Se Sirius non riuscirà a raccogliere il denaro necessario per onorare una prima rata dei suoi debiti entro martedì, il Chapter 11 fallimentare potrebbe scattare già in quella data. Questa la teoria del Washington Post e di altri giornali, che in queste ore hanno parlato di un secondo possibile acquirente per Sirius dopo EchoStar/Dish Network: il concorrente televisivo satellitare Liberty Media/DirectTV, guidato da un altro veterano dell'industria, John Malone, un manager ben noto per il suo pelo sullo stomaco. Come si spiegherebbe tutto questo interesse nei confronti di Sirius? Secondo MarketWatch, agli operatori piace l'idea di poter combinare servizi televisivi e radiofonici e rafforzare così la propria posizione sul mercato. Nel caso di Liberty Media potrebbe essere un interesse del tutto opposto. Malone punterebbe a rendere l'affare Sirius meno appetibile per EchoStar, che a quel punto si ritroverebbe con una voragine di costi e debiti e rischierebbe essa stessa il fallimento (Malone è sempre stato molto simpatico ai commentatori americani, fin dai tempi di TCI). Poi c'è sempre l'ipotesi dello spettro: spegnendo la radio si potrebbero utilizzare le frequenze per servizi dati broadband, cosa che però solleverebbe parecchi conflitti con la FCC.
Comunque sia il tema sta appassionando molto i giornali economic che versano sulla vicenda metri e metri di colonne. Sirius XM ha più di 3 miliardi di debiti, ma ha anche 20 milioni di abbonati che in cassa portano 2 miliardi lordi all'anno. Gli investitori cominciano a chiedersi se il merger tra Sirius e XM sia stata una buona idea. Un anno fa XM in borsa valeva 12 dollari. Ieri il titolo Sirius XM ha chiuso a 10 centesimi.

Sirius XM Preparing Worst-Case Scenario

By Cecilia Kang
Washington Post Staff Writer
Saturday, February 14, 2009

Sirius XM Radio said yesterday that the company may file for bankruptcy as early as Tuesday if it cannot find a way to renegotiate its debt payment of $175 million.
The nation's only satellite radio provider said it is trying to strike a deal with its debt holders to refinance, or find investors to shore up the company.
"These transactions may not be successfully consummated," the company said in a statement.
It was the first official word from Sirius on its race to save itself. In recent days, investors have reacted to a flurry of speculation over the fate of the satellite radio provider that hosts shock jock Howard Stern and domestic diva Martha Stewart.
The company's stock, which was trading near $4 a share one year ago, closed yesterday at 10 cents.
Sirius chief executive Mel Karmazin has been in talks in recent days with potential investors to buy the company's debt in exchange for a stake in the firm. Karmazin has reached out to Charles Ergen, owner of television satellite operator Dish Network, according to a source familiar with the matter.
Analysts said satellite television companies, including Liberty Media, would be most likely to invest in Sirius because their technologies would complement each other.
But some analysts doubt Liberty would want to invest in Sirius for its digital satellite radio business.
"Liberty involvement is more likely an effort by Sirius XM to attract a competing bidder . . . we don't believe (the) company is fundamentally interested in becoming involved in the satellite radio business," Vijay Jayant, an analyst at Barclays Capital, wrote in a report.
Sirius's most attractive assets are its 20 million subscribers, who bring in $2 billion in revenue a year, and the valuable radio spectrum the company owns.
But any potential buyer could be strapped with more financial problems down the line.
On top of the $175 million in debt due in days, Sirius XM has a total debt load of $3.2 billion. The company said it has refinanced a separate tranche of bonds worth $172.5 million that will mature in December for new debt due in 2011, a move to alleviate some of its burden.
But it has not found a way to pay the $175 million coming due early next week that must be paid or the company will break its agreement with bondholders. Bankruptcy would not result in the termination of service, analysts said, but could lead to a change in programming as debt holders would be able to force the company to break contracts with on-air talent like Stern and Oprah Winfrey.
The challenges facing Sirius are multiple. After an 18-month regulatory review of Sirius's merger with XM, the union was finally approved by the Federal Communications Commission and the Department of Justice just as the financial crisis had frozen credit markets and consumers clamped down on spending.
The company has never been profitable, and it is burdened with heavy costs to run its satellite technology and expensive contracts to fill radio programs. Sirius pays Howard Stern $100 million a year -- one-tenth of its debt due this year. And it has to share revenue from automobile subscriptions with carmakers that outfit new cars with satellite radios.
Moreover, the fast-evolving technological landscape has brought an onslaught of competitors to the consumer audio market. Sirius's $13-a-month radio subscription provides exclusive shows, but consumers are also getting access to more and more free media products online through sites like Pandora and digital music files downloaded to their iPods.
"This may be a chance for Ergen to get his hands on some valuable assets at a discounted price," said Tuna Amobi an analyst at Standard & Poor's. But he said any takeover would come with Sirius' continued financial and business handicaps.
"All the focus has been on the Feb. 17 deadline," Amobi said, "but there is another tranche due in May and another in December as well."

***

Why satellite-TV moguls see value in Sirius XM
By David B. Wilkerson, MarketWatch
Feb. 13, 2009

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- Among those who still seem to believe in the future of satellite radio are the heads of the two largest U.S. satellite-television providers -- and that has to count for something.
Charlie Ergen, chairman of Dish Network, and John Malone, chairman of Liberty Media, the parent company of DirecTV, are in negotiations to acquire control of troubled Sirius XM Satellite Radio Inc., according to Wall Street Journal and New York Times reports.
Sirius XM, hemorrhaging money and saddled with $2.8 billion in long-term debt as of Sept. 30, has reportedly been considering a Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing. Ergen had made an offer for the company not long ago, but Sirius XM turned him down. He hasn't given up.
Now Malone has stepped in.
Representatives of Sirius XM and Dish Network declined to comment Friday. A Liberty Media spokeswoman did not respond to a request for comment.
There are perfectly logical reasons for Dish Network and DirecTV to be interested in acquiring Sirius XM, according to experts.
"Under both their mission statements, Sirius XM would fit quite easily," said Jimmy Schaeffler, chairman and senior analyst at the Carmel Group, a telecommunications research firm in Carmel, Calif. "They're both looking for a bundle to tie up with their satellite-TV services, something unique that they could use to compete with the telephone companies and the cable operators."
While technical limitations prohibit satellite providers from directly providing telephone service or a state-of-the art broadband offering, Dish or DirecTV could offer a package that includes satellite radio.
Also valuable to the satellite-TV players is the radio spectrum Sirius XM owns, which could be used for a variety of purposes, including wireless transmissions.
Now, however, the situation seems to be pitting two outsized personalities against each other. And that adds some intrigue. Malone and Ergen have crossed swords before, going back to the days when Malone ran Tele-Communications Inc.; TCI was the biggest U.S. cable provider at the time.
"There's a school of thought that says Malone is just trying to game Charlie Ergen into raising the bid and ultimately bankrupting himself, so that Malone would have the whole field to himself," said Hal Vogel, president of Vogel Capital Management in New York. "It is a possibility, knowing how these guys play."
Whatever happens, said Schaeffler, Sirius XM will go on "forever" as a service, one with a sizeable -- and still growing -- subscriber list of 20 million customers.
Disgruntled shareholders
That's not much comfort to shareholders -- people like Don Hodges, co-portfolio manager of the Hodges Fund. "I don't know what to make of it all," Hodges said of the company's possible bankruptcy or sale.
"I'm beginning to wonder if [Sirius and XM] should have even merged," Hodges said. "Since the merger has been completed, it's just gone downhill. XM had some value before the merger. I'm pretty disillusioned with the whole thing."
Chart of SIRI
Hodges bought his position in what was then XM Satellite when the stock was at $12, only to find Sirius XM trading at 11 cents Friday.
"I hope somebody does come in and take it away from [Chairman Mel] Karmazin, because he obviously doesn't know what he's doing," Hodges said.

Sirius, pasticci in vista con l'FCC?

Comunque la si rigiri, non è una bella frittata, scrive oggi il Washington Post a proposito delle difficoltà finanziarie dell'operatore di radio satellitare digitale Sirius XM. Entro martedì Sirius XM deve trovare 175 milioni di dollari per saldare una parte dei suoi debiti e intanto provare a rinegoziare i contratti per tagliare i costi (spesso erano contratti stipulati da due operatori in concorrenza, con prezzi gonfiati dai rilanci).
Se non li troverà, non è escluso il ricorso alla protezione della legge fallimentare, ma intanto Sirius XM continuerebbe a trattare per cedere il controllo a Echostar. Che cosa accadrà ai 19 milioni abbonati al servizio Sirius. EchoStar potrebbe trasformare l'offerta nel ramo radiofonico della televisione via satellite Dish Network ma, dicono altri analisti, forse il sou Ceo Charles Ergen sta pensando di occupare le frequenze e i ripetitori terrestri di Sirius con i futuri servizi broadband senza fili che EchoStar starebbe per lanciare. E in questo caso come reagirebbe la FCC dopo il lungo braccio di ferro che l'ha vista esitare nel modificare le regole anti-monopolistiche che impedivano a Sirius e XM di fondersi?

CEO Reaches Out To New Investors To Save Sirius XM

By Cecilia Kang
Washington Post Staff Writer
Friday, February 13, 2009

Sirius XM chief executive Mel Karmazin is reaching out to potential investors. His company has $175 million in debt due Tuesday, and $350 million more due in May. The company has begun to fill out paperwork in the event it needs to seek bankruptcy protection for the satellite radio operator that hosts shock jock Howard Stern.
But Karmazin's options may be limited.
Any purchase of the nation's only satellite radio provider would face regulatory scrutiny, analysts said. And in light of the protracted 18-month review of the merger between XM and Sirius by the Federal Communications Commission and the Justice Department, few investors may want to take on the burden.
According to a source familiar with the matter, Karmazin has been in talks with EchoStar satellite service mogul Charles Ergen, hoping to strike a deal.
Analysts say Sirius's satellite radio service would complement Ergen's satellite television service Dish Network. Some have speculated Ergen may be interested in adding Sirius's spectrum to radio waves it bought in an auction early last year to build out a wireless high-speed Internet network.
Such plans would face resistance from Karmazin, according to the source, and would likely be fought by the FCC. The agency would have to review how the purchase would affect Sirius subscribers. Any investor would likely have to agree to not increase prices and to add more minority programming -- promises the New York-based Sirius had to make when it merged with the District-based XM last year, analysts said.
If an investor wanted to strip Sirius of its radio service and use its spectrum for other purposes, the obstacles could be even harder to surmount.
"The FCC's unlikely to authorize a repurposing of spectrum that would disenfranchise 19 million satellite users," Barclays Capital analyst Vijay Jayant wrote in a research report.
Sirius and XM executives poured millions of dollars into lobbying the FCC and the Justice Department to agree to their union, which was fought by the National Association of Broadcasters and consumer groups who said it would create a monopoly in the satellite radio market.
The Justice Department approved the merger last February after deciding that the combined company would not hamper competition. The FCC approved the merger months later, with the agency's three Republican members voting for it and the two Democrats voting against the deal.
Analysts said the long process distracted managers from merging operations and finding ways to cut costs of the combined company. At the same time the economy was sinking and consumers were cutting back on purchases of cars and electronics. Sirius' main source of revenue comes from new cars equipped with satellite radios.
"Whatever you thought about the wisdom of the final decision, it clearly took a terribly long time to make," said Rebecca Arbogast, an analyst at Stifel Nicolaus. "It is hard to keep your eyes on the prize when you are not sure what your future is."
Kevin J. Martin, who was chairman of the FCC at the time, defended the agency's lengthy proceedings, saying the merger was extraordinary in that it called for the agency to overturn rules that blocked a merger between the two firms. He added that the company had acted slowly to correct violations of wireless tower use.
"This was not a normal transaction," Martin said in an interview. "They asked us to change our rules that explicitly prohibited the merger."

Se il satellite cade la radio terrestre non ride

Sean Ross, della newsletter Ross on Radio, riflette sulla possibile dipartita della radio satellitare negli USA e spiega perché la notizia non deve necessariamente entusiasmare gli editori della radio terrestre. Sono 20 milioni di ascoltatori che non ritorneranno, scrive Sean. Anche perché si sono abituati a un'idea di radio a copertura nazionale che le stazioni locali terrestri non sono in grado di ricalcare. E non è detto che decidano di andare sulla radio digitale terrestre - che sta in effetti puntando sul multicasting di canali tematici ripetuti da diverse stazioni, attraverso i flussi secondario e terziario di HD Radio - perché la radio digitale è meno intuitiva del satellite.

If Satellite Radio Went Away Tomorrow

Entry by Sean Ross
Feb. 11, 2009

Okay, the reported pending Sirius XM Radio bankruptcy filing is a reorganization, hastened by a potential struggle for control of the company, it's not a liquidation. But you can be sure it's already inspiring no amount of wishful thinking on the terrestrial radio side. "Satellite radio crashes," reads the headline in this morning's Inside Radio. So there are undoubtedly broadcasters this morning licking their chops and wondering, "Well, what if Sirius XM does go away?"
That one isn't hard to answer. If Sirius XM suddenly ceased to exist tomorrow, it would in no way "solve everything" for terrestrial commercial broadcasters, who have already gotten way too excited about satellite radio attracting "only" 20 million subscribers. Local stations will not automatically repatriate all those listeners. And here's why:
For starters, Sirius and XM, as separate services, found their early adopters in the people who were never going to be satisfied with mainstream terrestrial radio. That wasn't a large enough number of people to make satellite profitable. It wasn't as large a group as the daily newspaper radio/TV writers (many of whom fell into the group themselves) would have liked to believe. But it's still a few million people who aren't coming back. And you can ask the PD of any commercial Triple-A station if those listeners have been missed in recent years.
More important, Sirius and XM also changed the expectation of 20 million listeners. Those listeners are comfortable with radio being national - not that terrestrial broadcasters haven't been helping the rest of us with that transition. They are accustomed to commercial-free music, particularly when choosing a station for a public place. They are no longer willing to wait for "traffic on the eights." They are used to Howard Stern in any market at any hour. Most important, they are used to having over 100 channels available, even if they only want to use the most mainstream handful of them.
(continua)

New York Times, procedura fallimentare per Sirius?

La stella di Sirius XM potrebbe essere avviata a una brutta caduta. Secondo il New York Times l'operatore di radio satellitare sta per avviare la procedura fallimentare in base alla legge americana del Chapter 11, l'ultima barriera protettiva contro un debito ormai imponente. Se l'ipotesi del quotidiano fosse confermata verrebbero smentite le speranze degli analisti che avevano sconsigliato Sirius da una mossa come questa, temendo ripercussioni imprevedibili tra gli abbonati. Ma in un momento come questo non è facile trovare nuovi capitali per andare avanti e la possibile carta di EchoStar (altro operatore satellitare che in questi giorni ha provato ad accaparrarsi parte del debito Sirius) non sarebbe gradita a Mel Karmazin, estroso CEO della società alle strette. Tra lui e Charles Ergen non c'è molto feeling.
Che cosa succederà adesso? Probabilmente Sirius continuerà a trasmettere, scrive il NYT, ma le prime spese da tagliare saranno quelle dei contratti d'oro con star radiofoniche come Howard Stern o Martha Stewart. Anche prima del merger con XM, Sirius non ha mai tirato fuori un centesimo di utile, in tutti questi anni. Forse ci sono stati errori di esecuzione, forse Sirius XM non è riuscita a percorrere tutte le strade e le sinergie possibili. Ma in fin dei conti la lezione che abbiamo appreso da questa vicenda è molto semplice: questa combinazione tra contenuti e piattaforma distributiva non ha funzionato, la tecnologia è bellissima, i contenuti accattivanti, gli abbonati numerosi e soddisfatti, ma le uscite hanno superato le entrate. Non è detto che la radio satellitare non possa tornare a funzionare in futuro, con altre modalità, altri dirigenti. Ma per adesso siamo davanti al verdetto collegato al titolo della normativa del Chapter 11, la "legge della bancarotta".

February 11, 2009
Sirius XM Prepares for Possible Bankruptcy
By ANDREW ROSS SORKIN and ZACHERY KOUWE

Last summer, Mel Karmazin was rattling off his trademark one-liners to talk up the future of Sirius XM Radio, the combined company he ran that had just been blessed by regulators.
He was planning to cut costs and expand a business that was already a fixture in the lives of millions of Americans. “Forty-three cents a day — it’s not even vending machine coffee,” he said at the time, parrying a question about whether the softening economy might hurt subscriptions.
But now Sirius XM, the satellite radio company, has problems with much bigger price tags. It has hired advisers to prepare for a possible bankruptcy filing, people involved in the process said. That would, of course, be a grim turn of events for the normally upbeat Mr. Karmazin, Sirius XM’s chief executive, who had hoped to create a mobile entertainment juggernaut with stars like Howard Stern. It is unclear how a bankruptcy would affect customers. Service is unlikely to be interrupted, but the company might have to terminate contracts with high-priced talent like Mr. Stern or Martha Stewart.
A bankruptcy would make Sirius XM one of the largest casualties of the credit squeeze. With over $5 billion in assets, it would be the second-largest Chapter 11 filing so far this year, according to Capital IQ. The filing by Smurfit-Stone, with assets of $7 billion, has been the year’s biggest to date. Sirius XM, which never turned a profit when both companies were independent, is laden with $3.25 billion in debt. Its business model has been dependent, in part, on the ability to roll over its enormous debts — used to finance sending satellites into space and attract talent like Mr. Stern (who was paid $100 million a year) — at low rates for the foreseeable future until it could turn a profit.
The company’s success and failure are also tied to the faltering fortunes of the automobile industry, which sells vehicles with its radio technology installed and represented the largest customer base among Sirius XM’s 20 million subscribers.
Sirius XM owes about $175 million in debt payments at the end of February that it is unlikely to be able to pay.
Sirius XM’s problems could pave the way for a takeover by EchoStar, the TV satellite company, which has bought up Sirius XM’s debt. Mr. Karmazin has been locked in talks with EchoStar’s chief executive, Charles W. Ergen, over Sirius XM’s options, people involved in the talks said. The men are said not to get along, these people said, and Mr. Karmazin had rebuffed Mr. Ergen’s takeover advances before.
Sirius XM hired Joseph A. Bondi of Alvarez & Marsal and Mark J. Thompson, a bankruptcy lawyer with Simpson, Thacher & Bartlett, to help prepare a Chapter 11 filing, these people said.
Documents and analysis are close to completion and a filing could come in days, according to a person familiar with the matter. The threat of bankruptcy could also be part of a negotiating dance with Mr. Ergen, who could decide to convert his debt into equity instead of demanding payment.
In addition to the $175 million due in February, EchoStar also owns $400 million of Sirius XM’s debt due in December. If Sirius XM files for bankruptcy, EchoStar could seek in court to take over the company. Mr. Ergen, however, may be able to negotiate to convert his shares before bankruptcy at an attractive rate and gain control of the company, these people said.
For Mr. Karmazin, the sale or bankruptcy of Sirius XM would be one of his first failures. He founded Infinity Broadcasting, sold it to CBS and later merged the combined companies into Viacom, where he had a notoriously difficult relationship with Sumner M. Redstone, the chairman, before being ousted. Mr. Karmazin bought two million shares of Sirius XM at $1.37 a share in August. Before that, he had bought 20 million shares at an average price of $5 each. On Tuesday, Sirius closed at 11.4 cents a share.
Since the summer, the company’s prospects have dimmed. “I’m not trying to paint the rosy picture, because we have challenges connected to our liquidity and certainly our stock price is dreadful,” Mr. Karmazin said in December. “But, you know, our revenues are growing double digits. We’re growing subscribers. We’re not losing subscribers.” A spokeswoman for Mr. Karmazin declined to comment. A spokesman for EchoStar could not be reached.
Mr. Karmazin staked the success of the merger on nearly $400 million in annual cost savings and the potential to gain subscribers through deals with auto companies to put satellite radios into cars. But satellite radio failed to win over many younger listeners, and competition from other sources slowed subscriber growth.

EchoStar interessata a Sirius XM. Per farne che?

Cresce la curiosità degli analisti e commentatori finanziari sulle manovre dell'operatore satellitare EchoStar in direzione di una possibile conquista di Sirius XM, la radio digitale satellitare di Mel Karmazin nota più per l'ammontare dei suoi debiti che per il numero di abbonati. Il tycoon di EchoStar, Charlie Ergen, è stato un giocatore di poker professionista e secondo questa lunga corrispondenza Reuters, ha sempre avuto fiuto per i buoni affari. Quando EchoStar ha cominciato a rastrellare il debito di Sirius subentrando ai suoi creditori (sarebbero già 400 i milioni di dollari passati di mano) tutti hanno cominciato a chiedersi che cosa avrebbe l'azienda di Ergen della sua possibile preda. Si dice che i satelliti Sirius XM potrebbero servire per lanciare nuovi servizi di televisione mobile. Che a EchoStar fanno gola i ripetitori terrestri (gap filler) impiantati da Sirius XM per diffondere il segnale nelle aree urbane con alti edifici e gallerie. A far da tramite per la scalata ci sarebbe Joseph Clayton, ex dirigente di Sirius Satellite, passato a EchoStar nell'ottobre scorso.

EchoStar may seek Sirius with eye on mobile video
Fri Feb 6, 2009

By Franklin Paul and Yinka Adegoke - Analysis

NEW YORK (Reuters) - EchoStar chief Charlie Ergen's surprising interest in Sirius XM Radio Inc belies his ambition to liberate his satellite television service from the living room into cars and mobile devices.
According to the Wall Street Journal, EchoStar holds about $400 million of Sirius XM debt, and the satellite radio company led by Mel Karmazin is scrambling to raise $175 million by a February 17 payment date to fend off a possible takeover threat and avoid default.
Analysts say any deal would hinge on a name from Sirius' not-so-distant past: Joseph Clayton, the former chief executive of Sirius Satellite Radio, which combined with XM Satellite Radio last year. Clayton joined EchoStar's board last October.
It is unclear what Ergen's interest in Sirius XM might be as his two companies declined to comment. He may want control of Sirius XM as a whole.
Another possibility is a debt-derived takeover in which EchoStar would become a secured debt holder with an eye on specific technology assets should Sirius seek bankruptcy protection.
Or Ergen could simply see the company as a cheap investment. Sirius' market capitalization has plunged to about $580 million, or below 20 cents a share, due in part to its heavy debt obligation and concerns about growth prospects.
(continua)